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Spot copper traded near $6.56 a pound early Friday, Oct. 30, little changed from a week earlier. The premium Chinese buyers pay for imported copper rose to a record this week, while large stockpiles stayed in the United States ahead of a possible tariff on refined copper.
Metal Sentinel's copper price API showed a bid of $6.557 at 9:36 a.m. GMT Friday, down 0.5% on the day, in a range of $6.546 to $6.615. Copper closed the week of Oct. 19 at $6.53. It is about 5% below the Sept. 9 record of $6.89, according to Metalcharts.
On the London Metal Exchange, the three-month contract closed Thursday at $14,352 a metric ton, down 1%, according to Shanghai Metals Market.
Record premium in China
The Yangshan premium, which measures what Chinese importers pay above LME prices, rose above $200 a ton on Wednesday, Oct. 28, the highest in Fastmarkets data going back to 2017, Bloomberg News reported.
Chinese inventories are falling. Stocks at major warehouses dropped 24,900 tons in a week to about 80,000 tons as of Oct. 29, according to SMM, compared with about 180,000 tons a year earlier.
On the LME, the spot price rose to a $217 premium over three-month futures, the widest since mid-August, Bloomberg reported. A premium for immediate delivery usually points to short-term tightness.
BMO Capital Markets analysts wrote in a note Thursday of "a disconnect between (muted) price action and a tightening physical market."
High prices have limited buying by Chinese fabricators, who are purchasing only what they need, SMM said.
Copper waiting in the U.S.
Traders have shipped hundreds of thousands of tons of copper to the United States in anticipation that President Donald Trump will extend tariffs to refined copper for the first time, Bloomberg reported. The administration has not announced a decision.
Global inventories are not low overall, but much of the metal sits in the U.S., according to the report.
Rates and the calendar
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28 and left a December hike open. Higher U.S. rates tend to strengthen the dollar, which makes dollar-priced metals more expensive for other buyers.
Monday, Nov. 2: ISM manufacturing index.
Tuesday, Nov. 3: U.S. midterm elections.
Wednesday, Nov. 4: ISM services index.
Friday, Nov. 6: October jobs report, 8:30 a.m. EST.
Monday's ISM manufacturing index is the most direct reading of U.S. factory demand this week.
Supply
Peru's copper output fell 5% from a year earlier in August to 230,676 tons, SMM reported. In Sweden, Boliden started producing cathode in the first of three tankhouse sections at its Ronnskar smelter and expects full output in the first quarter of 2027.
The International Copper Study Group forecasts a global refined copper surplus of 104,000 tons in 2026.
Levels to watch
Support: $6.44, the Oct. 22 low and the lowest price since mid-September. Below that, $6.30.
Resistance: $6.63, the high of the week of Oct. 19, then the mid-October high near $6.72. The record of $6.89 is above that.
Metal Sentinel's forecast
Metal Sentinel expects copper to trade between $6.44 and $6.72 a pound in the week of Nov. 2. Falling Chinese inventories and the record import premium support prices, while the U.S. stockpile and the chance of a December Fed hike limit gains.
A U.S. tariff decision on refined copper would be the largest risk in either direction, because it would decide where the U.S. stockpile goes.
For precious metals in the same week, see the gold price forecast and the silver price forecast. Metal Sentinel's copper price API publishes spot copper prices per pound in more than 180 currencies.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence before investing in metals.