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Spot gold fell to about $3,915 an ounce early Friday, Oct. 30, down 2.6% on the day, after U.S. inflation data kept a December Federal Reserve rate hike in play. The metal goes into the week of Nov. 2 below $4,000, with the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday and the October jobs report on Friday.
Metal Sentinel's gold price API showed a bid of $3,915.20 at 9:54 a.m. GMT, after a session high of $4,027.30. That was below Tuesday's low of $3,945, which BullionVault described as an eight-month low. Gold closed the previous week at $3,995.
Fed and inflation data
The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, Oct. 28, in a 10-2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point increase.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to say what the central bank would do in December. "I don't believe in forward guidance, absent exigent circumstances, absent a crisis," he told reporters.
Thursday's data supported the case for a hike. The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.5% in September and 3.6% from a year earlier, the Commerce Department said. The core index, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.1%, and the economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter.
CME Group's FedWatch tool showed traders pricing in a better than 75% chance of a December hike this week. Higher rates raise the cost of holding gold, which pays no interest.
Rates are the "main drag on the gold market right now," said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, according to Mining.com.au. He said the PCE report "did nothing to allay that fear."
The dollar fell for a third straight day Friday, and Treasury yields eased as investors bought bonds after weak technology earnings, FXStreet reported. Gold fell despite both moves.
Oil and Iran
Brent crude settled at $115.32 a barrel on Oct. 28. Iran's navy said Friday that four oil tankers struck sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and oil rose to a multi-month high, according to FXStreet.
Higher energy prices feed the inflation that is pushing the Fed toward a hike. Meger said escalation or easing in the Middle East could move precious metals through energy costs.
Talks are also underway. Vice President JD Vance sent a letter to the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council to restart negotiations, and Qatar gave Iran a new draft deal, FXStreet reported.
The week ahead
Monday, Nov. 2: ISM manufacturing index.
Tuesday, Nov. 3: U.S. midterm elections and September job openings.
Wednesday, Nov. 4: ADP private payrolls and ISM services index.
Thursday, Nov. 5: Bank of England rate decision.
Friday, Nov. 6: October jobs report, 8:30 a.m. EST.
The jobs report matters most for gold. Strong hiring would support a December hike, while a weak report could lower the odds and give gold room to recover.
Investors are watching the midterms for what the results could mean for fiscal policy, Mining.com.au reported.
Funds and physical buyers
Gold-backed exchange-traded funds shed 13 metric tons in the week to Oct. 23, the largest weekly outflow since late June, according to World Gold Council data cited by BullionVault. Selling of North American funds outweighed buying in Asia and Europe.
Chinese households have kept buying. "Domestic gold demand is increasingly running against the price trend," Zijie Wu, an analyst at Jinrui Futures in Hong Kong, told Bloomberg News.
Price levels
Support: Friday's low near $3,915, then $3,900.
Resistance: $4,025 to $4,030, where Friday's selling began. Above that, the $4,100 to $4,150 range capped prices in mid-October.
Metal Sentinel's forecast
Metal Sentinel expects gold to trade between $3,850 and $4,050 in the week of Nov. 2, with Friday's jobs report deciding which end it tests.
A payrolls number above expectations and steady oil prices would likely keep December hike odds above 75% and push gold toward $3,850. A soft jobs report, or progress in the Iran talks that lowers oil, would give gold a chance to get back above $4,000.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, called the market "almost flip-a-coin territory." Yuxuan Tang of JPMorgan Private Bank said gold may find "a solid bottom" only once U.S. rates peak, and that thin year-end trading could magnify moves in either direction.
ANZ expects gold's gains to stay limited in the short term before prices rise above $5,000 an ounce in 2027.
Silver fell harder this week and dropped below $50 for the first time since November 2025. For the sell-off that pushed gold under $4,000, see the gold recap for Oct. 19-23. Metal Sentinel's gold price API publishes spot gold prices in more than 180 currencies.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence before investing in precious metals.