Copper enters the week of May 4-8, 2026, near $13,100 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange and about $5.95 a pound on Comex, after five consecutive sessions of selling from the record highs of $13,445 a ton and $6.12 a pound set April 22.
The Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, May 6, China's Caixin services PMI on Tuesday and the status of the Strait of Hormuz are the week's main catalysts. StoneX, BCA Research and Goldman Sachs have forecast lower prices since January.
Metal Sentinel's copper price API publishes live copper quotes, historical series and base metals coverage through a single REST API.
1. Where copper stands
Closing levels as of May 1:
Metric | Level | Direction |
|---|---|---|
LME three-month copper | About $13,100 a ton | Off record highs |
Comex continuous | $5.95 a pound | Recovering from a five-day decline |
Year to date | Up 5% from an opening near $12,470 | Higher |
Record high (April 22) | $13,445 a ton LME; $6.12 a pound Comex | Tested and rejected |
LME cash-to-three-month spread | Tight backwardation | Physical tightness |
Global visible inventory | About 1.5 million tons | Up 540,000 tons year to date |
Copper remains above $13,000 a ton. Net long positioning on the LME is in the 80th percentile of its historical range, a level that has preceded corrections of 5% to 10% in the past.
Net short positions on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are at their widest since 2021, the largest divergence between Western and Chinese positioning in several years.
2. Catalysts this week
2.1 Federal Open Market Committee decision, Wednesday, May 6
Markets are pricing a near-certain hold at the 3.50% to 3.75% range. The reaction will depend on Chair Jerome Powell's statement and on how the market reads the influence of Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh on policy.
Hawkish hold: The dollar strengthens and copper tests $12,800 a ton support.
Dovish hold: Rate-cut expectations move forward, the dollar weakens and copper retests the $13,400 record.
Hawkish surprise in guidance: A 3% to 5% intraday correction if the dot plot moves materially.
Brent crude above $100 a barrel since the Hormuz closure has kept headline inflation elevated even as core demand softens.
2.2 China Caixin services PMI, Tuesday, May 5
China's manufacturing PMI beat expectations last week. Consensus for the Caixin services index is about 51.0.
A reading above 51.5 would point to stabilizing Chinese demand; China consumes about 60% of global refined copper. A reading below 50 would indicate the property sector's weakness is spreading into services.
Chinese copper consumption was flat in 2025, compared with about 700,000 tons of annual demand growth between 2010 and 2020.
2.3 U.S. ISM services PMI and first-quarter GDP revision
The ISM services PMI on Tuesday and the second estimate of first-quarter GDP on Thursday round out the U.S. data. A services reading below 50 or a GDP revision below 1.5% annualized would weigh on the demand outlook for base metals.
2.4 Hormuz and the Iran negotiations
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for more than 55 days, with vessel crossings more than 90% below prewar levels. Copper has less direct Gulf supply exposure than aluminum but is affected in two ways.
Gulf countries supply about 45% of the world's sulfur. With Qatari exports halted, China has restricted exports of sulfuric acid, an input for about half of Chile's copper refining capacity and about 15% of global copper production.
Higher freight, insurance and power costs are also raising costs at Chilean and Peruvian smelters. A breakthrough in U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan, or the U.K.-French effort to reopen the strait, would remove part of the war premium across base metals.
2.5 Grasberg and the concentrate market
Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia continues to operate below capacity after the fatal mudslide in September 2025 and the force majeure that followed. Any update on the restart timeline would move prices.
Spot treatment and refining charges are reported in negative territory, meaning smelters are paying for scarce concentrate. Negative charges have historically preceded tighter refined supply.
3. Levels to watch
Level | Price (LME, per ton) | Price (Comex, per pound) | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
Major resistance | $13,445 | $6.12 | Record high |
Resistance 2 | $13,200 | $5.99 | Last week's range top |
Pivot zone | $13,000 | $5.90 | Psychological level |
Support 1 | $12,800 | $5.81 | 50-day moving average |
Support 2 | $12,500 | $5.67 | March consolidation floor |
Deep support | $12,000 | $5.44 | First-quarter 2026 low |
Lower bound | $11,000 | $4.99 | Goldman Sachs mean-reversion target |
A close above $13,200 would open a retest of the record high. A break below $12,800 would likely extend to $12,500.
4. Scenarios for the week
Higher: retest of $13,400
The case for higher prices requires a Caixin services PMI above 51.5, a softer Fed rate path and a continued Hormuz closure. In that scenario the LME could close the week above $13,300 a ton, although stretched positioning could limit follow-through.
Lower: test of $12,500
Stretched LME longs, Shanghai shorts, Goldman Sachs' 2026 range of $10,000 to $11,000 a ton and rising global inventories all point lower. A hawkish Fed surprise would add to that pressure, with a possible move toward $12,000 if several catalysts turn at once.
Base case: range-bound
Metal Sentinel's base case is consolidation between $12,800 and $13,200 a ton through the Fed decision, with a directional move in the second half of the week. Metal Sentinel assigns a 60% probability to that outcome, 25% to a decline toward $12,500 and 15% to a breakout above $13,400.
5. Where 2026 forecasts stand
Source | 2026 copper forecast | Stance |
|---|---|---|
J.P. Morgan | About $12,500 a ton in Q2; $12,075 full-year average | Deficit-driven |
EBC Financial | Low to mid-$11,000s a ton | Range-bound |
StoneX | $11,490 a ton average | Below current spot |
Goldman Sachs | $10,000 to $11,000 a ton | Surplus-driven |
World Bank | About $9,800 a ton average | Lowest of the group |
Long Forecast (May 2026) | $6.01 to $6.27 a pound (about $13,250 to $13,820 a ton) | Momentum-driven |
The forecasts span $9,800 to $13,820 a ton, a 40% spread.
Forecasters cite a projected refined copper deficit of 330,000 tons in 2026, demand from AI data centers and electric vehicles, which use 2.5 to 4 times the copper of a comparable combustion-engine vehicle, grid expansion projected to drive more than 60% of demand growth through 2030, and an underinvested mining pipeline. Near-term prices are being set by positioning, currencies and headlines.
6. Data for tracking the week
Metal Sentinel's copper price API returns live copper prices in more than 180 currencies through the /api/metal-quote endpoint, with daily history through /api/metal-history and mining equity data for Freeport-McMoRan, Southern Copper, Antofagasta and BHP through /api/get-stock. The Metal Sentinel widget embeds live copper pricing without code.
7. What to watch
Copper enters the week in consolidation with the Fed decision in the middle of it. The bull case needs the China data, the Fed and Hormuz all to align; the bear case needs only one of them to break, and stretched LME positioning means any break tends to overshoot.
Published May 4, 2026. All prices referenced are indicative LME three-month or Comex benchmarks at time of publication. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own analysis and consult qualified professionals before making trading or hedging decisions.
For more market updates and weekly base metal wraps, visit the Metal Sentinel News blog.