Base metals closed the week ending May 1, 2026, with copper retreating from a record high, aluminum holding near the top of its 2026 range and the London Metal Exchange index up close to 12% over four weeks.
The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, the World Bank raised its 2026 commodity forecasts and Chinese manufacturing data beat expectations.
Where base metals closed
LME three-month benchmarks at the April 30 close:
Copper: About $13,000 to $13,200 a metric ton, down from the record $13,445 tested earlier in the week. Comex copper fell for a fourth consecutive session to about $5.90 a pound after a record near $6.12 on April 22.
Aluminum: Near the top of its 2026 range after a 15% rally since the conflict began in late February, with the cash-to-three-month spread signaling tight physical supply.
Nickel: In the $17,000s a ton, weighed down by Indonesian oversupply despite higher costs from sulfur disruption.
Zinc: Range-bound at $3,200 to $3,250 a ton as China's surplus offsets a deficit elsewhere.
Lead: Below $2,100 a ton, little changed on the week.
Tin: Near $47,000 a ton, the best performer of 2026, with supply still short.
The LMEX index of the six core base metals has gained close to 12% over four weeks and set a record earlier in April, surpassing its March 2022 peak.
The macro picture
The World Bank's April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, published April 28, forecast that commodity prices will rise 16% in 2026, the first annual increase since 2022, with aluminum, copper and tin reaching record annual highs.
The driver is the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February. Vessel crossings remained more than 90% below prewar levels as of late April, and the corridor, which normally carries about 20% of seaborne liquefied natural gas and 35% of seaborne crude, has been shut for more than 55 days.
Brent crude rose back above $100 a barrel during the week as U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan stalled and the prospect of a tighter U.S. blockade on Iranian ports kept risk premiums high.
For base metals, higher power, freight and insurance costs raise smelter costs, especially for aluminum. Oil above $100 also delays Federal Reserve rate cuts, strengthens the dollar and threatens industrial demand, particularly in Europe, where a technical recession by year-end is considered likely.
Metal by metal
Copper: profit-taking after the record
Copper set records above $13,400 a ton on the LME and $6.12 a pound on Comex in the week of April 21, then fell for four to five sessions before steadying near $5.90 a pound on April 30.
Three factors drove the pullback. Sulfur disruption from the Gulf led China to curb sulfuric acid exports, an input for about half of Chile's copper refining capacity. Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia remains below capacity after a fatal mudslide triggered force majeure. Demand concerns tied to the Iran conflict and a stronger dollar prompted profit-taking.
Stronger-than-expected Chinese manufacturing PMI data provided support late in the week. Global visible inventories have climbed to nearly 1.5 million tons, up about 540,000 tons year to date, pointing to a softer physical market outside the United States. The copper price API tracks the $12,800 to $13,000 zone that traders are watching for next week.
Aluminum: most exposed to Hormuz
The Middle East accounts for about 9% of global primary aluminum output and about 7% of seaborne trade. The LME cash-to-three-month premium has reached its highest since 2007, LME-registered stocks are at multi-month lows and the 2026 balance has shifted from an expected surplus to a forecast deficit of 360,000 to 570,000 tons.
European smelters face the largest cost increases. EU and U.K. chemical and steel manufacturers have imposed surcharges of up to 30% to offset electricity and feedstock costs, and some analysts warn of permanent deindustrialization in energy-intensive segments. A confirmed Hormuz reopening could trigger a 5% to 10% correction within days. Live quotes are available through the aluminum price API.
Nickel: oversupplied, costs rising
Nickel finished the week little changed in the $17,000s a ton. Indonesian high-pressure acid leach capacity keeps the global balance loose.
Those operations rely on imported sulfur, much of it from Qatar and the Gulf, which supplies about 45% of the world's sulfur. With Qatari exports halted, margins are compressing. Indonesia's final 2026 mining quota is the next catalyst. See the nickel price API.
Zinc and lead
Zinc held $3,200 to $3,250 a ton. China is in surplus while the rest of the world faces a refined deficit; Chinese exports reached a three-year high in October 2025, but thin margins and Hormuz-related logistics limit rebalancing.
Lead stayed below $2,100 a ton for another week as elevated inventories and higher Chinese secondary production weighed on prices. Most forecasters expect lead near $2,000 a ton into 2027. Quotes are available through the zinc price API and lead price API.
Tin: tight supply, stretched positioning
Tin traded near $47,000 a ton, the best performer of 2026, on a stalled supply recovery in Myanmar, regulatory constraints in Indonesia and a structural shortfall. Positioning is stretched, and a dollar shock could bring a 5% to 8% correction without changing the supply picture.
What to watch next week
Federal Reserve decision: A hold with hawkish language on energy-driven inflation would weigh on the complex.
U.S. first-quarter GDP and ISM manufacturing PMI.
U.S.-Iran talks: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's shuttle diplomacy through Pakistan and U.K.-French planning for a multilateral effort to reopen Hormuz. A breakthrough would unwind part of the war premium in aluminum and copper.
Chinese demand: Follow-through from this week's PMI.
LME warehouse stocks, particularly aluminum.
Summary
Prices consolidated during the week. The macro story dominated, while the physical market tightened across most metals except lead and nickel. The World Bank now forecasts record annual highs for copper, aluminum and tin in 2026.
Published May 1, 2026. All prices referenced are indicative LME three-month or Comex benchmarks at time of publication. Market data is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.